frankwu - Are we done yet?

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			frankwu - Are we done yet?

frankwu


	Are we done yet?
	OK, so Obama crushed Hillary in North Carolina, despite Hillary and Bill's best efforts, despite the Rev. Wright thing, despite the charges of elitism (from the superrich Clintons, indeed), despite the foolishness of a gasoline tax break that the economists don't support. And, despite a huge outpouring from Republicans trying to prolong the fight, Hillary JUST BARELY won Indiana, 50.9% to 49.1%. There's almost no statistical way for Hillary to win 50% of the pledged delegates. Her campaign's broke, and there are reports that she's loaned it more money - in contrast to Obama now passing 1.5 million donors. MSNBC's Tim Russert is calling Obama the presumptive nominee, as is HuffPo's Arianna Huffington. What's this? Hillary's cancelled her scheduled morning TV appearance? Maybe she'll bow out gracefully. One can hope. There is also talk about how to do this all strategically. Blogger kos suggests that Hillary should wait until after the May 13 W. Virginia primary. Right now she's got some 57% or so in the polls, and it would be embarrassing to Obama for Hillary to pull out and then clobber him in WV. Also, Hillary can leave on a high note. Also, if the superdelegates all rush in at the right time, then Obama will win with the popular vote in Oregon, and not with the superdelegate vote, which would look bad. These things have to be done delicately, or else you lose the magic spell. Of course, nothing this campaign has been done delicately or elegantly, so who knows.

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	Comments

	From: lisa_marli	Date: May 7th, 2008 06:51 am (UTC)		(Link)

Fingers crossed she listens to the people who tell her to leave gracefully.

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	From: voidampersand	Date: May 7th, 2008 09:26 am (UTC)		(Link)

Magic spell? WTF? This is a long and tiring race between two very evenly matched candidates. The two candidates both happen to also be very highly qualified, and it's been a very clean campaign. We should be grateful. You've been wanting Hillary to quit for a while now, but let me tell you, as soon as she's out of the race, the media are going to turn on the McCain propaganda full blast. I don't know if they can get away with it this time, but they really liked being kingmakers and you have to expect they'll give it the old college try.

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	From: astein142	Date: May 7th, 2008 12:47 pm (UTC)		(Link)

I have relatives in WV and a family tree there that stretches down the holler and up the next ridge. I predict Hillary will take WV because a lot of folks I've encountered there can't bring themselves to cross the color line. It a shame, but it is what it is.

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	From: snippy	Date: May 7th, 2008 03:56 pm (UTC)		(Link)

Just FYI, the Oregon primary is ongoing (all elections are vote-by-mail here); I received my ballot Saturday and mailed it Monday. And I voted for Ms. Clinton.

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	From: stu_segal	Date: May 7th, 2008 04:44 pm (UTC)		(Link)
	Bow out gracefully?

You've got to be kidding. Since Bill's arrival on the national scene almost 20 years ago, I can't think of a single thing the Clintons ever did "gracefully", or even fairly.

While I also hope she'll bow out, I suspect she'll do what we all fear most - try to make Clinton-esque backroom deals to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, coerce the super-delegates, and come up with whatever devious scheme will work to steal the nomination.

That said, I hope she proves me wrong and bows out gracefully.

ps: Maybe she'll bow out gracefully if she needs Obama - for instance, if she decides she wants to run on his ticket as VP.

Edited at 2008-05-07 04:58 pm (UTC)

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	From: tensegritydan	Date: May 7th, 2008 06:19 pm (UTC)		(Link)
	Re: Bow out gracefully?

People are talking about her being on the supreme court or Senate majority leader, so she still has reasons to make nice with Obama. She is a crazy asshole but she's not stupid, and at the end of the day she'll do what is best for herself. There is still a win-win possible, as long as she sees the writing on the wall and chooses to do the smart thing.

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	From: kmarkhoover	Date: May 7th, 2008 06:39 pm (UTC)		(Link)

I hope we're done, but I wouldn't count on it. Hillary says she's going to take it to the convention and I believe her until I see evidence that speaks otherwise.

She was hammered by Repugs for eight years as First Lady. She learned well from them. Too well, at times, it seems, for her own good.

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	From: howeird	Date: May 7th, 2008 11:33 pm (UTC)		(Link)

Neither candidate has enough votes to win the nomination. It's likely neither will win on the first ballot. This is one of the most exciting nomination races in history - why are you so eager to see it end prematurely?

Edited at 2008-05-07 11:34 pm (UTC)

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	From: cos	Date: May 8th, 2008 05:23 pm (UTC)		(Link)

It's over. Obama will be the nominee. It's been over for quite a while now.

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	From: howeird	Date: May 8th, 2008 05:39 pm (UTC)		(Link)

The numbers don't support your claim. Sorry. Thanks for playing.

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	From: cos	Date: May 8th, 2008 05:47 pm (UTC)		(Link)

These were the numbers before Pennsylvania, along with a lot of commentary and discussion and probably whatever objections you'd make. Here's the same post with even more discussion. If you have an objection that hasn't already been made and rebutted on those posts, go ahead.

It's much worse for her now than it was then, of course. Currently, even if you include the superdelegates, Obama needs about 175 more and Clinton needs about 330 more, which means she needs to win 68% of the remaining delegates, which there is no way she's going to do. But the more relevant number is pledged delegates, because the remaining undeclared supers are *not* going to give Clinton the nomination if she's behind in pledged delegates. Obama is currently about 165 pledged delegates ahead of her, and there are only 217 left. She has no chance whatsoever of making up even a significant fraction of that difference. Note that the pledged delegate leader at the time of the convention will control a majority on the credentials committee that will decide how to handle Michigan and Florida.

It is over.

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	From: frankwu	Date: May 8th, 2008 06:21 pm (UTC)		(Link)

In politics, there is the reality and then there is the perception of reality. The perception is often more important (in terms of winning elections).

A whole slew of folks dropped out after the first two contests - like Dodd and Biden. Were they statistically eliminated? Not by a longshot. But it was clear that the winds were blowing against them.

The wings are now gale-force against Hillary. Her negativity and relentless, small-minded bitchiness are hurting the party and its presumptive nominee and destroying her own reputation.

True, Obama does not have the numbers right now to clinch, but he has the momentum (which, in politics is much of it), and he is so close that Hillary only seems to be more and more disconnected from reality every day.

Hill has almost no numerical chance to catch up. Her continuing to run seems to be, daily, more and more about her own ego than about making the world a better place.

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	From: cos	Date: May 8th, 2008 06:20 pm (UTC)		(Link)

Or, another way to illustrate it:

If Clinton wins every state that remains, with a margin as high as she won her home state of New York, she would still end up behind by about 130 pledged delegates. Even if Michigan and Florida were to be counted fully as-is (which is not going to happen - at the very very least, Michican's "uncomitted" would be counted for Obama to have any semblance of fairness), that would gain her only about 110, so she would still be behind. So even in the impossible scenario where states like Oregon and Puerto Rico (yeah, not technically a "state") go for Clinton by NY-level margins and Michigan and Florida count as-is, Clinton still loses.

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	From: frankwu	Date: May 8th, 2008 06:22 pm (UTC)		(Link)

Yup yup.

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	From: cos	Date: May 8th, 2008 05:22 pm (UTC)		(Link)

Hillary lost two months ago (on March 4th), but the important difference now is that the consensus of the press has changed to saying she lost, whereas in March and April, they were still drumming it up as an exciting contest with outcome unknown. So I think it'll be over within a month, and possibly within days.

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	From: mike_van_pelt	Date: May 9th, 2008 04:59 am (UTC)		(Link)

I suspect Hillary's intent is to be the Democratic nominee, either in 2008 or in 2012. And she's willing to use scorched earth tactics to ensure that she'll have that opportunity in 2012 if she isn't the nominee this year.

(Whether anyone would be in the mood to give her that chance is another question. I suspect she might find herself persona non grata in 2012 if she were perceived as having sabotaged the Democratic Party's chances in 2008 in order to shore up her own personal shot at the office. She may be underestimating the perceptiveness of the voters. Maybe.)

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11:02 pm May 6th, 2008